Mets Minors Monday: Duda Goes Down; Who Steps Up?

The Mets announced today that Lucas Duda was going on the disabled list with a stress fracture in his spine. That's pretty bad. Even worse, there's no real idea when he's going to be back with the team. 30 home runs is a lot of production to miss in a lineup.

So who the heck is on first?

Short term, the Mets called up Ty Kelly. He was playing with the Las Vegas 51's. He's 27 years old and was originally drafted by the Orioles back in 2009 in the 13th round. He made it to Triple A with Baltimore back in 2012, and had an ok stat line. He went to Seattle from there, then St. Louis and Toronto.

He signed with the Mets this off season, presumably as minor league depth. He was hitting a MONSTROUS .391 so far in Las Vegas. Here's why that's misleading.

He's a career .280 hitter. He hit .226 last season. Las Vegas can be a hitters park, in a hitters league. He's older than the median age of the league, and he simply might know how to exploit younger pitchers. Yes, .391 is gaudy as all hell. No, it most likely won't carry over to the majors.

So, who else is there in the system?

Dominic Smith is the heir apparent down in Binghamton, but the Mets are waiting for everything to come together for him and for his power to show up. He's hitting .277 with 4 homers and 9 doubles. Eh.

Domo is still young and I think he's got the potential to be a really good player. But I don't think he's there yet.

St. Lucie has Michael Katz at first, and he had a pretty "meh" year in 2015. The fact that he's 23 doesn't give me a ton of confidence that he'll amount to a major league starter. Eudor Garcia HAD been a possibility at first, but he's serving a suspension for PED's. I have zero idea what to expect from him when he makes it back to baseball. He DID hit .296 last year in a pitchers league, so there's some hope.

If Domo and Garcia fall through, the Mets have to pin their hopes on Dash Winningham. Currently all of 20 years old in A ball with the Columbia Fireflies, Dash has a ton of potential. But 20 years old is a long LONG way from the majors. So is Columbia, South Carolina.

So. There is some decent potential in the system but no sure thing. If it's me, and this is a long term thing for Duda, I'd move Conforto to first or make a trade for an established big leaguer. ESTABLISHED help is not on the way for first from in the system.