Who Is Better? Mets or Yankees Starting Pitching

Spring Training is so close you can almost taste it. Both local teams are, for the most part, done with building their rosters, and we're just waiting to see how the teams shake out now. So what better time than to play the game: Who Is Better?

Fair warning, I'm a Mets fan. But I'd like to think I'm a reasonable Mets fan. I don't hate the Yankees, and I understand all too well the faults my team has.

I'm going to do a whole series of posts comparing positions on both teams, most likely breaking down the individual infield positions, but comparing the outfields, bullpens and starting pitching as a whole.

SO! Who is better? Mets or Yankees pitchers.

The funny thing about both staffs is that their ace (Mets/Harvey and Yankees/Tanaka) is coming off of injury, they have an elder statesman type at the back of the rotation making a lot of money (Mets/Colon and Yankees/Sabathia) and a young pitcher in the middle who I think can be stupid good if they manage to put it all together for an entire season (Mets/Wheeler and Yankees/Pineda). I think the difference is the Mets also have last years Rookie of the Year with deGrom and and full stable of very capable pitchers with Gee and Niese who can win games anywhere in the rotation. And that's 6 starting pitchers for the Mets, with a ton of youngins waiting in the minors for anyone to slip up.

And there is safety in numbers.

So, let's break down both teams.

Yankees: I think the big issue with the Yankees starting rotation is the direction their workhorses are taking. Sabathia and Capuano are both on serious downwards trajectories.

ERAs over the past few years: Sabathia/Capuano
2011                                       3.00        4.55
2012                                       3.38        3.72
2013                                       4.78        4.26
2014                                       5.28        4.35

You can't live on those numbers over a whole season.

Also, Nathan Eovaldi. I know he's a young pitcher who can throw some heat, but he's pitched to an ERA under 4.00 once in the past 5 years, and Yankees Stadium is not a great park for dudes who live and die by their fastball. I'd say a #3 pitcher is a VERY optimistic projection.

The elephant in the room is Tanaka. You have to wonder if NOT going under the knife was the right decision. Yes, he's NASTY. But if he blows his elbow out in May, the Yanks are done. Seriously.

Mets: There are a few wildcards with this team.

#1. Can Harvey come back strong? If the dude comes back at 75% of what he was in 2012, the Mets have someone at the top of the rotation who can throw 3.25....and I think he'll get better as the season gets older.

#2. Can deGrom continue his success? Obviously, I liked the way the dude pitched. So did everyone else, since he was ROTY. But can he keep it up? I think it's VERY telling that as the season went on and he saw teams more often, and there were scouting reports out on him, he got BETTER. He has a hiccup in August with a 3.42 ERA, but July was a 1.39 and September was a 1.67. There were times he looked unstoppable.

#3. Can Wheeler learn to control his pitch count? The kid has NASTY stuff. If he can control his walks in the early innings he's going to be ridiculous. He just needs to learn to pitch, not just throw.

Between Niese, Gee and Colon, I think we know what we have. Terrific options to fill out the back end of the rotation, considering their careers.

So, who is better? I think the questions about Harvey's arm compared to Tanaka's favor the Mets. You can project Harvey's progress from Tommy John surgery much better than non-surgery with Tanaka. Both can be aces if they're healthy.

Pineda vs deGrom. Both can be aces if they can continue their success from last season, and they're both young.

Wheeler/Niese/Gee/Colon, I think, is MUCH better depth and a much better way to round out the back end of a rotation than Sabathia/Eovaldi/Nova/Capuano. Age and projectability win for the Mets.

Given age, salary and overall ability, the Mets rotation wins out over the Yankees by about 70% to 30%.

Even more, if Wheeler/Harvey/deGrom can put everything together, I think they have the makings of one of the nastiest top 3 pitchers in the league, and I simply can't say that about the Yankees.